[SMM analysis] frequent news of mine shutdown should not ignore the influence of downstream demand on tin price.

SMM3 July 7 news: recently, there is news that because of the two sessions during the explosive control, Huanggang mining industry suspended production for two weeks, its tin mine annual output of about 2000 tons. In addition, the Southern Mining Concentrator stopped production in early February due to insufficient ore supply, which is expected to continue until the end of March, with an annual production capacity of about 4000 tons.

Recent news of the shutdown of domestic tin mines, coupled with Myanmar's imported mine supply is already in the downward channel, so that market participants are worried about this year's mine supply. However, in addition, the procurement demand from downstream is also worthy of attention, after all, if the price is not supported by buying, it may also be difficult to sustain. Since last Tuesday, Shanghai tin has continued to decline, positions have also continued to decline, the silver mine disaster after the "one-day tour" market gains have been quickly erased, coupled with the imminent reduction of value-added tax news, Shanghai tin strong no longer. We have also noticed that since the Spring Festival holiday, the actual rigid demand downstream has been relatively weak, and many downstream have generally indicated that the current tin ingot price is higher than its psychological price, or that there is still a certain stock of tin ingots in hand in no hurry to buy. There's a lot of wait-and-see.

SMM 1 # tin unit: yuan / ton:

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Shanghai and Wuxi main contract 1905:

SMM believes that in addition to the support from the strong external market, in March, the focus is on whether domestic downstream demand will be released as expected, and the support of downstream buying is the main factor affecting whether tin prices can write brilliantly again. In Shanghai period, the resistance above tin is 150500 yuan / ton, and the support below is 147500 yuan / ton.

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